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NEW COVID VARIANTS TO DETERMINE PACE OF ECONOMIC RECOVERY

patriot by patriot
January 24, 2022
in Business
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NEW COVID VARIANTS TO DETERMINE PACE OF ECONOMIC RECOVERY

Gomolemo Basele, Quantitative Analyst at FNB Botswana

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According to the Africa Year-ahead Outlook from Rand Merchant Bank’s (RMB) Markets Research team, vaccine efficacy and new COVID-19 variants are likely to be strong factors in Botswana’s continued economic recovery.

After a severe contraction of 8.7% in 2020, growth was expected to rebound to 9.1% in 2021 as a result of a resurgence in the global demand for diamonds, which was projected to recover to normalised levels in 2021. Domestic growth will be supported by the continued global recovery, which will support commodity prices and result in sustained pre-pandemic domestic mining activity.

Says Gomolemo Basele, Quantitative Analyst at FNB Botswana: “Growth is expected to moderate to 4.0% in 2022, still supported by the mining sector with two copper projects being central to the country’s prospects.” The Khoemacau copper mine commenced production in 2021 and is expected to gradually increase output to reach about 60,000 tones of copper metal. A second copper mine is expected to come on-stream over the medium term to support Botswana’s emerging copper production capacity.

According to Basele, non-mining sector performance is expected to benefit from increased developmental spend over the forecast horizon: “The improvement in government revenue over last year will allow for the delivery of key infrastructure projects, which will improve the local operating environment.”

Furthermore, as part of the diversification agenda, several measures have been planned to support the development of the agricultural sector from 2022 onwards. A revised programme to replace the Integrated Support Programme for Arable Agriculture, aimed at increasing productivity and improving food security, is expected to be implemented in the first half of 2022. In support of this programme, import restrictions (that came into effect in 2020) on certain vegetables are also likely to be extended to allow local producers to improve their capacity. As part of their efforts to improve domestic food security, the government is also in the process of building silos to increase local grain storage capacity.

Additionally, the country’s Economic Recovery and Transformation Plan (ERTP) is expected to gain pace, given the improved fiscal outlook because of higher mineral revenue over the medium term. Says Basele: “Botswana has also secured funding from both the World Bank and African Development Bank to the tune of US$250m and US$137m respectively, to aid in the delivery of the ERTP. These funds will be directed towards attracting private sector investments, contributing to the diversification of Botswana’s exports, and creating job opportunities towards a green economy.”

On inflation, prices pressures are expected to persist. “Heading into 2022, price growth will receive further upside pressure from the transport group index – fuel prices were increased again in December 2021 and public transportation fares of 1 January 2022. These factors coupled with our anticipation of higher utilities and rental prices this year will work to keep inflation elevated above 7-year historical averages. In spite of this pressure, we expect inflation to revert to the central bank’s 3.0%-6.0% objective range in the third quarter of 2022, as the effect of last year’s supply-side pressures recedes,” concludes Basele.

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  • Dr Sikhulile Moyo named to TIME’s annual TIME100 list of the 100 most influential people in the worldMay 23, 2022
    TIME  has  named  Dr  Sikhulile  Moyo  to  the  2022 TIME100, its annual list of the 100 most influential people in the world. Dr. Moyo is the Research Laboratory Director at the Botswana Harvard AIDS Institute Partnership (BHP), a health […]
  • VACANCIES: BR PropertiesMay 17, 2022
    INTERNSHIP OPPORTUNITY Finance and Administration Closing date: 18th May 2022.
  • BANANA CLUB HOSTS FIRST MAUN EDITIONMay 17, 2022
    The artist-led collective, Banana Emoji Productions in collaboration with the European Union Delegation in Botswana hosted the beloved BANANA CLUB dialogues in Maun on the 14th of May 2022.  The multi-disciplinary creative group is committed to working with artists […]
  • Orange Botswana CEO among Africa’s most inspirational women in leadershipMay 12, 2022
    – Declares House of Rose House of Rose Professional Pte. Ltd (HORP) has announced its 2022 List of Africa’s Most Inspirational Women in Leadership. The list included over 100 inspirational leaders and was curated by House of Rose Professional […]
  • Unions ‘consider’ a Workers PartyMay 12, 2022
    Masisi snubbed trade unions on Workers Day, chose Khawa BOFEPUSU warn Masisi that Khawa could cost him elections Opposition will be top beneficiary of a Workers Party -Analyst BAKANG TIRO editors@thepatriot.co.bw Aggrieved trade union federation, Botswana Federation of Public, […]
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