UDC failures could spur BDP comeback

The Botswana Democratic Party (BDP) is gone in so far as mounting a dramatic comeback to the throne is concerned. But it stands a chance to increase seats in the National Assembly come the 2029 general election though such will not be significant enough to take power. The party lost a significant number of votes in the 2019 general election owing primarily to bad leadership by its President Mokgweetsi Masisi ably assisted by the Secretary General Rre Kavios Kario. Complicitn to the bad leadership were other members of the party’s Central Committee who wilfully looked the other way when there were clear signs that the ship is sinking. Unlike the Secretary General who resigned, the party Chairman Rre Slumber Tsogwane is reported to have raised his hand to lead the party yet it was under his chairmanship that the party lost power. I wonder what else he is bringing to resuscitate it. Consequent to bad leadership, some BDP members and sympathisers did not vote for the party mainly out of the frustrations resulting from the chaotic bulela ditswe elections. 

Whereas the BDP was whitewashed by the ruling Umbrella for Democratic Change (UDC), it recorded a 30.49% popular vote which translated to 254,632 votes second to UDC’s 37.22% whose outcome in terms of votes cast in its favour was 310,862. In 2019, the BDP recorded a 52% popular vote while the UDC’s was about 37%. From the 2024 popular vote numbers, the BDP lost about 12% possibly and probably in the main to the UDC with the rest possibly accruing to the Botswana Congress Party (BCP). 

For the BDP to make a remarkable comeback in 2029, it has to regain the 12% popular vote it lost to the different parties. Is this achievable should be the obvious question? Not entirely hence my argument that the party could increase, marginally so, seats in the National Assembly but not significant enough to take power. That is, these seats will fall far too short to satisfy the 31 seats mandatory threshold. Secondly, the BDP is no longer a party in power and therefore unattractive in terms of patronage and other freebies associated with a party in power. Thirdly, Batswana are still aware of the BDP’s failures in the recent past which failures they will not be prepared to experience. 

Such failures, they are likely to argue, have brought untold hardships which have exacerbated their daily socio-economic circumstances. Fourthly, it will depend on how the UDC performs in the next five years. If it performs well in terms of delivering on the key promises like the P 4000 minimum wage; the P 1,800 for the elderly and others, it will be hard for the BDP to mount a remarkable comeback. Should the UDC fail to perform, voters could decide to vote for the BCP given its performance results. It appears Batswana will not be prepared to vote for non-performing political parties. One can hear the voices that if the UDC fails to deliver, it will be a one term party. 

The incoming BDP Central Committee is key to the party’s fortunes in so far as winning back members who did not vote for it in 2019. Looking at the over-crowded list of those who seek to be elected

be further polarised by the crowded list. While it will be acceptable internal party participatory democracy for every member in good standing to contest for party positions, it would be ideal in my view considering the party’s political woes, to have a thin list. The thin list would reduce ructions that are consistent with elective congresses

The current party President Masisi is said to be touring party regions. While on face value this tour could look innocent, it cannot be discounted he could use it to clandestinely campaign for his preferred successor at the detriment of other aspiring candidates. It goes without saying he still commands influence by virtue of his position. Added to this will be members of the regional committees who are still loyal to him. Such members could be inclined to sell his preferred candidate. Masisi has a score to settle with party members who blamed him for the humiliating electoral loss the BDP suffered. Such members have openly called him out to resign. He is still boiling inside. I submit that while the BDP could possibly increase its seats in the National Assembly following the 2029 general election, it will be hard for it to make a dramatic comeback. I argue very strongly Batswana still view the BDP with circumspection given the circumstances that led to its recent political demise. With or without Masisi, the BDP will in the next election cycle struggle to redeem itself meaningfully and politically. This is consistent with dominant political parties losing power. Kenneth Kaunda’s UNIP and Jomo Kenyatta’s KANU are always mentioned as former dominant parties that have not risen from the hard fall.

I am prepared to be persuaded otherwise as always.

Judge for Yourself! 

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