Will Dikoloti join UDC or contest 2029 as mokoko?

Considering the ill-treatment by Mokgweetsi Masisi at the Botswana Democratic Party (BDP), Dr Edwin Dikoloti will have to count his lucky stars how he survived the onslaught and triumphed. Thanks to the huge sympathy vote from some disgruntled BDP members and other sympathisers who ensured that he returns to parliament. As if that was not enough, he received another huge boost from President Advocate Duma Boko who roped him into his cabinet as an Assistant Minister. On these two accounts, Dikoloti was back in the political limelight with a huge political statement. This left a bitter taste on the mouth of Masisi who was desirous of ruining Dikoloti’s political career. Elected as an Independent Member of Parliament, Dikoloti has since become a member of the executive arm of government involved in implementing policies and programmes of the UDC. Just this past week, he successfully presented a motion for a policy on the licit use of cannabis in Botswana for industrial and medicinal purposes. Two critical questions linger on. Is he going to try to retain his constituency as an independent candidate or, will he join the UDC as a reward for the huge political favour it accorded him? 

A pertinent question arises. What motivated Boko to make that most sought out telephone call to Dikoloti? It is said that when cabinet appointments are imminent, Members of Parliament keep their phones fully charged expecting a call from the President to offer them a cabinet post. Dikoloti must have been taken aback to receive such call given that he was not a UDC MP. He had left the ministry of health in a dire state given the many challenges. 

To be fair to him, the ministry was on its knees even before he arrived. Did he make meaningful, impactful changes at the ministry? Did Boko mean to spite the BDP? Did Boko believe Dikoloti could add value to his administration? Was he enticing him to join the UDC? I believe Boko played a political game to lure Dikoloti to join the UDC. 

The option of standing as an Independent is implausible. Standing as an independent candidate was a last-ditch effort after he was summarily dismissed by Masisi on the eve of the 2024 general election. Existing political conditions at the time favoured him. Dikoloti’s huge win margin demonstrated the power of sympathy vote. The same sympathy votes will not be available for him to ride on in 2029. The disgruntled BDP members who helped him win the constituency will probably have returned to the party. Some of them could very well be uncomfortable with his association with the UDC. 

It will not be smooth sailing for him should he formally join the UDC and defend the seat under its ticket. UDC members in the constituency could view him as an outsider. Some UDC members have been complaining about cabinet appointments, particularly for the likes of Dikoloti who did not help the party to win the 2024 elections. 

Dikoloti defeated a UDC candidate in the 2024 general election and that candidate is likely to contest the 2029 elections. If Dikoloti is given free passage to represent the coalition in the constituency in 2029 the decision will pit him against UDC members leading to instability. It will translate into the same situation that was pursued by Masisi where he wanted to impose Peggy Serame on electorates at the expense of Dikoloti. To avert any unintended consequences, an open bulela ditswe process will have to unfold where Dikoloti and other aspiring candidates compete. Even then, chances of him winning in an open contest are not as clear as daylight given complaints from within the coalition about his appointment to cabinet ahead of more deserving comrades. 

Like many BDP members, it appears they turned their backs on the party because of Masisi.  Now that he will be out of BDP leadership after the Maun elective congress, some disgruntled members may retrace their steps back to the party. It is likely that the new BDP leadership will approach Dikoloti to return. 

If he does, he is more likely to win the party bulela ditswe given his popularity in the constituency. Whether he will win the constituency under these circumstances is hard to tell.

In conclusion, I argue that while Dikoloti has managed to turn his political career around given the more challenging odds he faced, the journey ahead could be as tricky and unpredictable as it gets given the many possible scenarios. Is he going to ‘betray’ the UDC at the last minute after it came to his rescue after he was dumped by Masisi? Not downplaying the fact that he was already an MP when the UDC embraced him, the fact that he is in cabinet significantly improved his national profile in more ways than one. For example, he is using the privileges of his ministerial position to service the constituency more than he could if he was an ordinary MP. For the time being, he is a UDC member by association owing to his ministerial position. It will be interesting to watch how he will defend his seat in 2029-whether he will do so as an Independent candidate or otherwise. I am prepared to be persuaded otherwise always. Judge for Yourself! 

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