Will the BDP achieve the mandatory 2/3 Constitution Amendment Bill vote?

According to the President, a vote on the controversial Constitution (Amendment) Bill will be taken tomorrow in the National Assembly. On any other day, it will be a given that the Bill would be passed without breaking a sweat due to the numerical advantage the BDP commands. But this Bill is no ordinary Bill given how heavily it has evoked so much public interest here and elsewhere. It is a Bill that can make or break Botswana.

It is a Bill that comes in the aftermath of a contentious BDP bulela ditswe elections where some sitting MPs’ fate has been sealed with some still trying their racer-thing attempt to overturn the results and reinstated to be BDP parliamentary candidates on 30 October 2024. Further, the vote on the Bill comes a few weeks after other controversial Bills on the retirement benefits for the former Presidents and former Vice Presidents were ‘temporarily withdrawn’. Would all BDP MPs vote for such controversial Bill which essentially, is the President’s pet project? I don’t think so.

For the Constitution (Amendment) Bill to pass so Section 89 (3) (b) (ii) of the Constitution tells us, ‘not less than’ 2/3 of MPs must vote in its favour and that equates to 42 MPs. Expectably, all BDP MPs will be under strict orders to vote for this Bill. It is a given all opposition MPs will vote against it given their vicious rejection to the same. The BDP is already a vote down following the passing on of Hon. Mthimkhulu. The President is away with Minister Kwape unless they vote virtually. Others could deliberately absent themselves. It is not far-fetched to predict some of its MPs could possibly vote against it for various reasons. Such MPs would be those who have fallen out of favour with the powers that be. It is a difficult call to make whether or not the BDP will achieve the mandatory 2/3 votes for the Bill to pass. But given the fractious state the BDP finds itself in, it could come to a screeching stop tomorrow. It could be dead in the water or an exercise in futility. I am prepared to be persuaded otherwise as always.