The election saw the largest parties who were front runners for state power, UDC and BDP, have their support slashed while newly formed Botswana Patriotic Front (BPF) saw its support soar.
Mokaloba said for BPF to win Serowe constituencies should be a cause for concern to BDP because the UDC swept Mahalapye and Palapye constituencies. He said this could have a serious bearing on the future of BDP in Central district largely due to Khama influence, which could lead to the end of BDP popularity.
The Alliance for Progressives (AP) suffered a heavy blow managing to get one parliamentary seat while it also marked the demise of Botswana Movement for Democracy (BMD). Mokaloba opines that it will be interesting to see how UDC president Duma Boko, who lost the elections, will deal with party leadership going forward towards 2024 elections. He suggests that it is better for Boko to surrender the UDC residency to Dumelang Saleshando leading up to the next general elections. He added that Saleshando’s victory ijn Maun West remains key in sustaining UDC going forward.
“UDC have done well. They just need to go back to the drawing board. I see BPF not surviving to 2024 if it can only put its focus at Ga Mmangwato territory as it is now,” Mokaloba posited.
BDP perfomance
The BDP has won 38 seats with majority of them coming from the South of Dibete and according to Mokaloba the voting has been done around the North-South divide factors.
He indicates BDP had already lost its grip in the central district because of the influence of former president Ian Khama and Botswana Patriotic Front (BPF) that caused harm to BDP. Mokaloba also said the perfomance of BDP has been interesting more especially for it to win all five of Gaborone constituencies is a clear sign that the opposition was going to lose heavily in Southern part of the country.
“It has been the North-South divide and BDP benefitted from it by winning its majority of seats in the southern part. In the North opposition did well and ousted BDP in some of its traditional constituency. This was all about Masisi- Khama feud, voting for Masisi in south and North for Khama influence,” Mokaloba Mokaloba underscored.
Of all the 38 seats BDP won, 28 were in the south while 10 came from the North.
Fragmented opposition
The divided opposition will only continue to cost the opposition parties and benefits BDP as it gains more from the vote splits as AP and BPF have costs UDC potential votes hence need for opposition unity.
Mokaloba argues that a decline in popular vote by the opposition in this year’s elections unlike in 2014 shows that there is lot of assignment by opposition to fully topple the BDP in next 2024 polls.
“BDP won in big margins in most of the constituencies because of the vote splits scrambled by UDC, BPF, BMD, AP and high numbers of independent candidates. A weak opposition that is not united for now still have no chance to defeat BDP.The BDP’s 2019 results says it all, “He added.
Duma Boko, Ian Khama bromance he said is one thing that have also made some voters to lose confidence in UDC because of Khama’s past regime that many have been criticizing as tyrant.
The final results
BDP won the elections with 38 parliamentary seats, followed by UDC with 15 seats of which Botswana Congress Party won 12 and Botswana National Front (BNF) winning only three.
BPF won all three seats in Serowe with Wynter Mmolotsi won one seat for the party delivering Francistown South constituency making his third term at parliament under BDP, UDC and now AP.