As the Botswana Democratic Party (BDP) prepares for the imminent 2024 general election, it must do so after fairly determining the bulela ditswe disputes arising from the recently held bulela ditswe elections which were nothing but a sham. For avoidance of any doubt, the party has accepted this was sham. Over and above resolving the disputes, the party has to hold a special congress to elect its presidential candidate as it is the norm during an election year.
The immediate question is will the BDP overcome these huge hurdles given the short period between now and the general election. Fact of the matter is that the bulela ditswe disputes were brought about by the recent chaotic elections where almost all the candidates who lost feel they were not free, fair and credible. I want to believe the winners will privately share the same sentiment. One will remember the last presidential election held in Kang where the sitting President was viciously and vigorously challenged by Mme Pelonomi Venson-Moitoi. Something tells me some of the deserving bulela ditswe disputes are likely to be white washed with a few held to save face. This will exacerbate the already high political temperature that has reached boiling point in the party.
Bulela ditswe disputes
I believe I will not be far-off to suggest most of the disputes will be dismissed on procedural grounds before the substantive grounds are determined. Such procedural grounds will be inter alia, that the dispute was not channelled through the regional committee as the rules demand; that the substantive grounds are not material enough to overturn the result; that such grounds would not have conferred an unfair advantage to the winner because all candidates would have been equally affected. That said, I find it unacceptable to expect the very regional committee under whose watch the disputes are premised, to give an objective and impartial report about them.
Further to this, it is abundantly clear to all and sundry that the BDP bulela ditswe elections were held under the circumstances and atmosphere that rendered them not free, fair and credible. A fresh bulela ditswe election in all constituencies and wards would be desirable. Ordinarily, one would expect the regional committee to be objective and impartial but given the high stakes and the apparent favour of one candidate over the other by the regional committee if reports to that effect are anything to go by, the said committee should be excluded in the equation. It is reported by one of the mainstream media platforms that one regional committees is divided on whether to order a rerun or dismiss the appellant’s dispute.
Presidential candidate
In the last election cycle, the BDP held a special congress in Kang during the first quarter of 2019 as per the dictates of its Constitution in an election year. This time around and crucially two months or so before the general election, such has not been called neither has the date been pronounced. Unless the party knows the general election will be held way after October 2024 in which case the special congress could be squeezed in between. Without saying it, this is a Constitutional matter that cannot be ignored because the ramifications could be too ghastly to contemplate. Chances are that the Central Committee could declare the sitting president its presidential candidate given that some regions have already endorsed the sitting President to be their preferred presidential candidate. If this happened, the party could be liable for litigation by any member and chances are that such a member will stand good prospects of success unless its Constitution provides for the Central Committee to vary that provision as and when it deems it necessary to do so. I am making this assumption because I could not access the BDP Constitution to confirm whether or not it clothes the Central Committee with such discretion. Such a member predictably, would be one of those disgruntled by the outcomes of the bulela ditswe whether they would have appealed and were unsuccessful or they never did any of the two.
Deleterious consequences
I stand corrected: the BDP has never experienced such huge number of bulela ditswe disputes like it has this time around. And the party has not been caught on the blind side with respect to electing a presidential candidate in an election year. The party has attributed the blame on the Covid-19 pandemic and the delimitation exercise. I have previously as I do so now, opined that these are lame excuses peddled to serve as a distraction to the BDP’s biggest failure of the century-to hold a disastrous bulela ditsewe elections and to, two months before the general election, not to have convened a special congress to elect a presidential candidate.
These two scenarios is an explicit indication that the BDP is run by a leadership characterised by indecisiveness; serious lack of forward looking and the sheer acts of dropping the ball at crucial times particularly in an election year. If there was a coherent opposition, the BDP would be good for the taking probably than never before. I have already argued that opposition political parties have almost given up on dethroning the BDP. It is not far-fetched to suggest notwithstanding the chaos the party finds itself in, its electoral demise could be prolonged in this election cycle.
Over and above these scenarios, the BDP is on the back foot from its own members and the general public consequent to the abrupt withdrawals of the infamous Bills on the pension benefits of the President, the Vice President and the Referendum. It is beyond doubt these Bills were ‘temporarily withdrawn’ to save face than the lame explanation that broad-based consultation was not done.
It is almost a given that the BDP will once again shambolically deal with the bulela ditswe disputes in a manner that will stoke more political fires in the party. This because it has become abundantly clear the regional committees have a clear and vested interest on who should prevail in the disputes. If the party demonstrated beyond any doubt it does not have the capacity in whatever form to run a free, fair and credible bulela ditswe elections, how would one expect it to run a credible and legitimate resolution of the disputes? It is my belief the resolution of these disputes will also be a sham of sorts. As if the bulela ditswe conundrum will not be enough, it will be compounded by that of the election of the presidential candidate. This is a BDP Constitutional imperative that cannot be ignored as and when it suits the Central Committee. It will be intriguing to watch how the BDP manages these two processes simultaneously which could make or break it. Only time will tell but I fear for the worst. I am prepared to be persuaded otherwise as always. Judge for Yourself!